Fun with Projections

One of my favorite things to do is take the first round of projected stats I get and wildly extrapolate what the Royals' record will be in the coming season.

Yesterday, Dan Szymborski released his first projections of the year, which he calls ZiPS.

I immediately dumped the Royals' projected starting lineup into David Pinto's Lineup Analysis Tool to see what kind of run production could be expected from the team this year.

4.7 runs a game.

Last year, the Royals averaged 4.5 runs a game overal, and 4.68 from August to the end of the season, when the team was almost the same as it projects to be this coming year.

For what it's worth, Lorenzo Cain projects to hit 259/314/370 and Melky Cabrera is looking at 284/330/435. If Cabrera replaces Cain in the projection, and moves Giavotella from the two-hole, then the Royals should score 4.8 runs a game. You can see the revised projection here.

So, what does all of this mean? Well if the pitchers can hold steady at their overall rate of 4.7 runs per game last season, then the team should be a .500 ball club, which is what I think most analysts will agree is a reasonable goal for this team.

If the pitching can get just a wee, tiny, teensy-weensy bit better... Then, I can plan to take some days off in October to watch the boys in blue in that postseason slot at 10a.m. on a Tuesday that all of the non East Coast teams usually get when the playoffs start.