The reasoning goes something like this: The Royals have very little power in their lineup. Signing a free agent with power will be expensive. Mike Sweeney has power and is already here.
I am curious about two specific aspects of this story. 1.) Does Mike Sweeney still have power? And 2.) How much should the Royals pay him for this?
I am leaving out the question of Billy Butler’s ability to man first base, because I think that he can certainly play it as well as Ken Harvey and... er... well, Mike Sweeney did.
Does Mike Sweeney still have power?
Joe Sheehan made a comment in a chat at Baseball Prospectus the other day that I found interesting: “[Y]ou should consider extra-base hits together as a group (or in a rate like XBH/H, XBH/AB, ISO) as opposed to isolating one category of hits. Guys can see doubles turn into homers one year and back the next for no real reason.”
Let’s see how the original $11 million Royal has done at hitting for power consistently over his career.
Year AB XBH XBH ISO
/H /AB
1995 4 0% 0% 000
1996 165 30% 8% 133
1997 240 26% 6% 121
1998 282 36% 9% 149
1999 575 37% 12% 198
2000 618 29% 10% 190
2001 559 44% 13% 238
2002 471 35% 12% 223
2003 392 30% 9% 174
2004 411 38% 11% 217
2005 470 43% 13% 217
2006 217 41% 11% 180
2007 204 36% 9% 162
CAREER 36% 11% 194
Not bad. Sweeney has lost a bit of isolated power the last few years, but his extra base hit percentages are still in line with his career numbers.
Before his latest trip to the disabled list, Sweeney had 7 home runs in 204 at bats. That put him on pace for 15 round trippers if he could have managed to stay healthy enough for 450 at bats. Don’t look now, but that would put him one behind John Buck for the team lead.
I’ll go out on a limb and say that the power is still there for Mike. A healthy Mike Sweeney could put 25 dingers on the board in a season, and while that won’t get him into any Barry Bonds debates, it would certainly help a team as anemic as this current Royals squad has been with the long ball.
Of course, the phrase “a healthy Mike Sweeney” is akin to “I want a pony” for most Royals fans. But, the fact is Sweeney is playing rehab ball in the minors right now. He will be able to play baseball next season and somebody will sign him.
How much should the Royals pay him for this?
Using some quick and dirty math along with the Play Index over at Baseball Reference, I cobbled together the following list of players I felt were having comparable seasons to Sweeney.
Name PA OPS+ Age HR BA OBP SLG Salary
Erstad 274 80 33 2 272 331 354 $ 750,000
Redmond 270 86 36 1 289 344 350 $ 950,000
Zaun 285 79 36 6 228 310 378 $3,500,000
Blum 255 83 34 2 256 327 352 $ 900,000
Graffy 260 83 35 9 238 315 390 $3,250,000
Piazza 247 93 38 5 276 316 405 $8,500,000
Valent 192 88 31 2 290 339 409 $3,800,000
Cora 200 84 31 2 254 309 395 $2,000,000
Gomez 203 94 36 1 305 338 390 $ 850,000
Conine 253 85 41 6 268 325 411 $2,000,000
Delluc 196 83 33 4 234 301 389 $3,750,000
Pod’nik 170 84 31 2 257 323 382 $2,900,000
Cirillo 193 86 37 2 254 326 373 $1,500,000
Clark 176 82 35 11 230 278 453 $1,034,000
Barajas 141 86 31 4 214 343 376 $2,500,000
Valentin183 79 37 3 241 302 373 $3,800,000
Mientk 141 80 33 4 226 292 379 $1,500,000
AVERAGE 214 84 35 4 255 319 386 $2,557,882
Sweeney 225 82 33 7 245 307 407 $11,000,000
It’s good to know the Royals aren’t the only team overpaying for below-average production and disabled list time.
Taking a quick average of Sweeney’s last three years, how does he stack up with your average older, oft-injured player?
PA OPS+ Age HR BA OBP SLG Salary
AVERAGE 214 84 35 4 255 319 386 $2,557,882
3 Years 326 102 30-33 12 268 334 454 $?,???,???
And some of this year’s numbers just for fun...
Player Age OPS+
Sweeney 33 82
Gload 31 99
Brown 32 65
Costa 25 77*
*Costa’s OPS+ is from last season, when he spent significant time at the big league level.
Gload and Costa are relatively cheap. Emil Brown is getting paid $3,450,000 for his contributions this year. The Oakland Athletics have paid Frank Thomas and Mike Piazza $500,000 and $8,500,000 respectively over the last two years to man the designated hitter post with varying levels of return.
It’s funny to say it, but if the Royals can get Mike Sweeney’s average production from the last three years for Emil Brown money, I say they make that deal.
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